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Brace for Impact: Looming Storm Threatens Flash Floods and Damaging Winds

Our first system has now cleared the region and we are already gearing up for our next major impact to our region. However, this impact won't come in the form of any wintry precipitation, it will be form of flash floods and damaging winds.

What's Coming?

Euro model guidance image showing 500mb low pressure system
00z EURO 500mb showing Tuesday 9pm

We will have a massive low pressure system that will be digging up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico then cutting up through the Midwest into the Great Lakes region. As a result, our region will be getting the 'tail' of this low pressure system that will be bringing a tremendous amount of moisture and wind.


00z Euro Operations Surface Map
00z Euro Operations Surface Map (1/10)

Flooding and Damaging Winds

Our main concerns with this system are the flooding rains and powerful/damaging winds. With the current snow pack in Northwestern New Jersey and the onslaught of rain incoming, this will cause great concern of flash flooding, especially in the areas with heavy snow pack.


00z Euro Total Rainfall
00z Euro Total Rainfall

00z GFS Total Rainfall
00z GFS Total Rainfall

The overnight European model and GFS are pretty close in agreement that that heaviest rains are going to be focused over the areas that received the most snow fall this past weekend. Even if you don't have a snow pack, our grounds are extremely saturated already from all the rain we've had over the past month, that 2-3"of expected rain can make a flash flood situation fairly quick.

Along with the torrential rains, we will be dealing with some impactful winds, with gusts reaching up to 70mph along the coastal regions and up to 60mph further inland. These winds will have the potential to really make this situation go from bad to worse with the saturated ground, bringing down trees and branches, which could take down power lines, leading to power outages.


00z EURO Wind Gust 1/10
00z EURO Wind Gust 1/10

00z GFS Wind Gust 1/10
00z GFS Wind Gust 1/10

Both the Euro and GFS models agree on significant wind gusts along the coastal regions and further inland. These strong wind and wind gusts that will be onshore and battering the coastal front could lead to significant beach erosion and tidal flooding.

The short range NAM model guidance is picking up a squall line that could lead to damaging straight line winds. We'll have to monitor that situation over the next 12hrs and see if the higher resolution models pick up on that squall line.


00z NAM Surface Map 1/9
00z NAM Surface Map 1/9

The National Weather Service is concerned about this system also, they issued a weather briefing regarding this upcoming storm - NWS Weather Brief


NWS Briefing
NWS Briefing

Timing

The system looks to arrive late Tuesday morning - Tuesday afternoon. The heaviest rain and winds will happen late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. The system will be cleared of our region by Wednesday's morning rush hour.

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