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Light Snow Tuesday, More Chances in the Future

In our previous discussion about the active storm pattern titled 'Riding the Wave: Active Storm Pattern Ahead,' we examined the long-range models' predictions for this Tuesday's snow threat. Over the past four days, there's been notable variability in these forecasts, with the GFS (Global Forecast System) initially suggesting a significant storm, while the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) model indicated a miss, with the system sliding southwards into the sea. However, recent data suggests that the models are aligning towards a consensus, albeit not for a major storm event as some may have anticipated

Tuesday's Light Snow

The latest model runs have converged on a scenario that spares our region from a complete miss, indicating a light snow event instead. The current atmospheric pattern is too progressive, preventing the storm from slowing down and intensifying into a major snow event. Nonetheless, this could represent the most substantial snowfall many in our region have witnessed in nearly two years.

00z EURO Surface Map Tuesday 4pm
00z Canadian Surface Map Tuesday

00z GFS Surface Map for Tuesday

Tuesday's Snow Details

Timing and Impact: Expect snowfall to commence late Monday night, continuing into Tuesday morning and persisting through the afternoon. This timing suggests the Tuesday morning commute might be slower than usual, with snowfall potentially impacting travel conditions. Main roads are likely to be treated and remain wet, but secondary streets could become snow-covered. With temperatures staying below freezing, caution is advised on wet roadways due to the risk of ice formation. The snow is anticipated to taper off later in the afternoon or evening.

Snowfall Predictions: While this event is not expected to bring significant accumulations, areas could see 2-3 inches at most. I'll be releasing a detailed snow map later today to provide more precise estimates. Below, you'll find projected totals based on current weather model outputs, National Weather Service Mount Holly, and National Weather Service New York


00z Canadian Snow Totals

00z GFS Snow Totals

00z EURO Snow Totals



Looking Ahead

Post this light snow event, our attention turns to another system potentially impacting us towards the end of the week, specifically around Friday and Saturday. Current models, including the GFS, ECMWF, and the Canadian model, are hinting at 'something' developing, so we're closely monitoring this. As part of our active weather pattern, this could present additional snow opportunities. Stay tuned for further updates as we track these evolving conditions


00z Canadian Surface Showing Friday

00z EURO Surface Showing Friday

00z GFS Surface Showing Friday

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