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Riding the Wave: Active Storm Pattern Ahead

As another storm exits our region, we are looking ahead to more storms that are looking to make an impact to our area. We haven't had much break in between systems, so far we had two very impactful systems that were within 3 days of each other. With our next system, we only have a couple days to prepare for the next.

Friday - Saturday System


00z Euro Operation Surface Map (1/13 @ 1am)

A very similar setup as we just went through, we have a large low pressure system that will be forming in the Midwest near Arkansas/Mississippi area and gathering a ton of moisture out of the GoM (Gulf of Mexico). This system will shoot straight up to the Great Lakes, creating a tremendous blizzard for that region, however we will be on the East side of the storm, where more strong winds and heavy rains will be situated.


00z Euro Operational Wind Gust (1/13 @ 2am)

This system will bring more winds, however they won't be as strong as our previous system. However, looking at gusts ranging from 40-50mph along the coast and 20-40mph further inland. Even though the winds won't be as strong, our ground is very saturated and it won't take much wind to knock over some tress that were already weakened from our previous storm. I would be mindful of additional power outages with this next storm.



00z Euro Operational 48hr rainfall totals

Again, our next system will be an all rain event, just adding on to our running total of precipitation since last weekend. However, this event looks to be much less moisture involved, with modeled totals ranging from .50" - 1.00" of rain. With all of our previous moisture filled events, our grounds a very saturated so possible of more flooding in low lying areas.


Excessive Rainfall Outlook (1/13)

The Weather Prediction Center has placed a 'Slight' chance of flash flooding taking place over Northern New Jersey, a this is where all the snow pack was and all the additional rain the fall Tuesday into Wednesday.

Timing

We are looking at rain beginning to fall late Friday evening and lasting through Saturday morning. The heaviest rains will be falling early Saturday morning and the winds will also be the strongest in the early morning hours of Saturday. Winds will be out of the South/Southeast.

MLK - Tuesday Storm


00z Euro Operational Surface (1/16 @ 7am)

Our next week storm is a little more intriguing for those of you who are snow starved. The above image is the overnight run of the EURO showing a low pressure system forming off the New Jersey coast and bringing snow and rain to the region. At this point and time, I am not worried about what the surface map shows in regards to precipitation, it is way to far our to pinpoint that. What I do like is that the EURO and the GFS show an agreement that there is a potential system brewing between Monday night into Tuesday.


12z GFS Operational Surface (1/16 @ 1am)

Previously the GFS was not seeing the SSW (Southern Short Wave), it has a bad bias of not seeing the energy until later. The newest run (12z), the GFS is finally catching on to what the EURO was sniffing out. Again, I am not worried about what the precipitation currently shows, I am looking at the placement of the low and how the Northern Jet & Southern Jet interact off the Southeast coast. As always, a lot of moving parts that are 5-6 days away. We will keep a close eye on this after our next system pushes out of the way first.

Beyond

The active storm pattern continues through the rest of January, with at least 3 possible rain & snow threats over the next couple weeks. As always, we have to take one storm at a time but it looks like we are going to be very busy with weather talk, however it may not all be winter weather talk.

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