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Weekend Snow Alert

The latest snowstorm has once again positioned Northern New Jersey as the recipient of the highest snowfall totals, a phenomenon often referred to as the "jackpot" area in meteorological parlance. Forecasting this event presented significant challenges, particularly in predicting the formation and location of the heaviest snow bands and determining their impact on Southern New Jersey. Despite these difficulties, our preliminary forecasts managed to delineate the affected areas with reasonable accuracy, albeit with some underestimations in snowfall amounts for both Southern regions and certain locales in the Northern sector.

A comprehensive comparison of reported snowfall totals, as compiled by the National Weather Service, against our final forecasted snow map reveals the extent of these discrepancies. This analysis serves not only as a testament to the unpredictability of such weather events but also as a critical tool for refining our forecasting techniques. You will not find transparency of this magnitude on any other platform. We aim for full transparency and open to feedback, no matter if negative or positive.

February 13th Snow Map Verification

Southern New Jersey Special


A swiftly moving shortwave trough, originating from the Great Lakes region, is anticipated to traverse the Ohio/Pennsylvania area early Saturday morning, exhibiting a slight intensification. In contrast to the preceding system, this upcoming event will be characterized by significantly cooler air masses, which will facilitate snowfall primarily in the early morning hours, concluding before 10 a.m.

Snow accumulations are expected to be modest, as the system possesses limited moisture and will be rapidly progressing. Projections indicate a widespread snowfall of 1 to 3 inches across Southern New Jersey on Saturday morning. This event is forecasted to deliver a picturesque seasonal snowfall, which, under the afternoon's emerging sunlight, will create a visually striking landscape across the region.


European Surface Map Saturday Morning


GFS Surface Map Saturday Morning

Summary

Recent snowfall placed Northern New Jersey in the spotlight, receiving the highest totals, although forecasting challenges led to some underestimations in both Northern and Southern areas. An upcoming weather system, a quick-moving shortwave from the Great Lakes, will affect the region early Saturday morning, bringing cooler air and resulting in 1 to 3 inches of snow across Southern New Jersey. This snowfall, expected to conclude by 10 a.m., will create a scenic winter landscape as the sun emerges later in the day.

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