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Before the Bouquets: New Jersey's Pre-Valentine's Snow Impact and What It Means for You

As we've been enjoying mild temperatures and an early onset of spring-like weather, New Jersey residents are about to witness a significant shift. The serene weather will momentarily step aside for what can be described as the second act of winter. A pattern-changing storm, arriving just before Valentine's Day, is poised to reignite the winter conditions with vigor. This analysis aims to elucidate how this forthcoming storm could influence your pre-Valentine's Day plans.

The Details

Euro Surface Map (2/13)

A low-pressure system, currently tracking across the Southwestern United States, is predicted to advance towards the Delmarva area. Subsequently, it will veer towards the coast, introducing a diverse array of precipitation across New Jersey. This scenario is often referred to as a "Thread-the-Needle" situation, characterized by the confluence of two distinct energy streams—namely, Northern and Southern. The merger of these energies will foster the development of a low-pressure system, culminating in a spectrum of wintry precipitation for our region.

Earlier forecasts revealed a divergence in predictions: The Global Forecast System (GFS) anticipated an earlier phase of the Southern branch, suggesting a trajectory that would favor widespread snowfall due to a more southerly path. Conversely, the European model (Euro) projected a later phasing, which would pull the system northward. Recent observations, within the last 24 to 36 hours, have clarified that the phasing is likely to occur later, positioning the low-pressure system further north. This adjustment forecasts snowfall for the northern parts of New Jersey, while the southern regions can expect rainfall.

Timing & Impacts

The transition will commence in the early hours of Tuesday morning, between 1 to 4 AM, as rain begins to envelop much of New Jersey. Northern areas will see a swift transition to snow. From 7 AM to 1 PM, the northern part of the state should brace for the heaviest snowfall, with moderate accumulations anticipated on cooler surfaces, though roadways may see less accumulation. Central and Southern New Jersey will experience a changeover to snow during the later morning to afternoon hours of Tuesday. However, accumulations here are expected to be minimal, primarily affecting grassy and non-paved surfaces.

This system is anticipated to be fast-moving, with precipitation tapering off by 4 PM Tuesday and clearing completely by sunset.


If you can't see the above impact map, please click here to view

Summary

New Jersey is on the cusp of a significant weather shift, with a pre-Valentine's Day storm poised to reintroduce winter conditions. Expect a dynamic mix of precipitation starting early Tuesday, with rain transitioning to snow from north to south. Northern New Jersey will face moderate snow accumulations, especially on cooler surfaces, while central and southern regions should anticipate minimal snowfall, primarily on grassy and elevated surfaces. The storm is expected to be brief, clearing by Tuesday evening. Residents should prepare for changing conditions and plan accordingly to ensure a safe and comfortable week.

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