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Raging Winds, Torrential Rains: Early Week Soaker

Our first storm has not even started yet and many are already looking towards our next system. The upcoming system will feature a low pressure system that will build strength from moisture out of the GoM(Gulf of Mexico) and head straight up into the midwest region into the Great Lakes. Our area will be dealing with the very tight isobar and moisture filled tail end of the low pressure system that will create powerful winds/gusts and flooding situations across the state.

00z Euro Operational Surface Map (1/10)

With the isobars being so tightly packed together, we will see some very strong on-shore winds, especially closer to the coast you are. Current models are suggesting max wind gusts up to 60+mph. With the ground already heavily saturated from our weekend storm and all the rain we had during December, these wind gusts combined with more rain will create a nasty recipe for downed trees, power lines, coastal erosion, and flooding. All of this could lead to power outages and dangerous situations where flooding may occur.

00z Euro Max Wind Gust Operational (1/10)

Powerful winds and gusts combined with very heavy rains will spark the conversation of flash flooding across the state. Currently modeled, we are looking at amounts ranging from 2-3" of rain over a 30hr period with the heaviest falling with a 12hr period.

00z Euro Total Rainfall Operational (1/10)

The Weather Predication Center (WPC) has even issued a "Moderate" chance of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance. Currently the moderate advisor is centered over Northern sections of New Jersey where the current highest snowfall accumulations are forecasted. The rest of New Jersey is in "Slight" risk of exceeding flash flood guidance.

The WPC Excessive Rainfall Guidance

The Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center has also issued a "Significant River Flooding Likely" for a large portion of the state (Highlighted in orange). The National Weather Service is definitely concerned about our next storm that looks to be making impact Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning (01/09 - 01/10).

The MARFC River Flooding Outlook

After our weekend storm pushes out, I will continue to update further on how our early week storm will be impacting our region and your area.

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