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Rain to Snow: Mild Temperatures to Accumulating Snow


Current Temperature Map

As we witness a winter thaw, thanks to the Bermuda High's influence, New Jersey is set to experience a notable temperature gradient. Towards the week's end, southern regions can expect temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. However, the northern half of the state might see a struggle, with temperatures barely reaching the mid-40s.

This temperature disparity is crucial because it significantly impacts our weather patterns. If current models hold true, and the warm air fails to penetrate further north, we could be looking at a key development by the end of the week. The northern regions may see more accumulating snow, a stark contrast to the milder conditions in the south.


12z EURO Surface Map Sunday Night

The Details

Let's dive into the details. A stalled frontal boundary, positioned ahead of an incoming low-pressure system, is setting the stage for multiple rainy spells across New Jersey. Starting tonight, we're bracing for the second wave of rain, expected to move in during the overnight hours and into Friday morning. This frontal boundary will then lift northward, introducing warmer air and creating a sharp temperature gradient from south to north.

This weather pattern sets the stage for our next system, anticipated to bring rain to most of the state. However, there's a twist: model guidance suggests a sharp transition to snow in Northern New Jersey, potentially starting Sunday night into Monday morning. The EURO model from today's 12z run illustrates our low-pressure system intensifying off the coast and pulling cooler air in its wake. Both the EURO and Canadian models consistently predict accumulating snow for the northern parts of the state, particularly above I-78, following an initial mix of rain.

Timing & Impacts

When it comes to timing, the entire state should expect rain beginning Sunday morning, progressing from south to north. Our low-pressure system will move offshore and intensify during Sunday. As it strengthens, it's poised to draw cooler air into its system, changing rain and mixed precipitation in the north to snow.

An interesting meteorological phenomenon, known as frontogenesis, might occur during this time. This process involves the collision of cool and warm air masses, potentially leading to heavier snow banding in isolated areas. This event could last from Sunday night into early Monday morning. Under these conditions, some areas in Northern New Jersey might see moderate snow accumulation.

Expect all rain and snow to clear up by Monday morning's break of day.

Initial Impact Probability Map


If you have issues viewing the Google Map, please click here to view

Summary

New Jersey is experiencing a winter thaw with a significant north-south temperature divide due to a Bermuda High. Southern areas will enjoy milder temperatures (upper 50s to low 60s), while the north might see mid-40s at most. This sets the stage for varied weather patterns: the south experiencing warmer conditions and the north potentially facing snow accumulation by week's end. A series of rainy conditions, beginning tonight and intensifying over the weekend, will lead to a possible transition from rain to snow in Northern New Jersey, especially above I-78, starting Sunday night. Expect all precipitation to clear by early Monday morning. Stay informed as this dynamic weather situation evolves across the state!

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