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Snow Map Verification: Another System into the Weekend?

The recent, relatively mild snowstorm has notably ended a nearly two-year period without significant snowfall (1.0 inch or more) in the Philadelphia Metro area and southern New Jersey. As is customary following each snowstorm, I have compared my initial snow prediction map with your observations. I chose not to revise my first forecast, feeling confident about its accuracy. Across the state, snowfall generally ranged from 1 to 3 inches, with the highest accumulation of 3.7 inches recorded in Mount Holly, Burlington County. While there were some discrepancies along the coastal areas and in regions where 2 to 4 inches were predicted, the forecast successfully communicated the likelihood of a light to moderate snow event with minor accumulations.

Snow Map Verification (Red snow flake is a missed call. Green snowflake is a correct call)

If you have issues viewing the map below, please click here

Another Snow Storm?

Reflecting on my previous articles, we are indeed in a period ripe for potential storms, a theme that continues to hold true. Currently, we are monitoring a potential storm system expected from Friday afternoon to Saturday morning. At this stage, it does not seem to be a major event, akin to the recent system, but with an important distinction – this time, we anticipate no transition to mixed or rain precipitation. The forecast suggests snowfall for the entire region.

12z GFS Surface Map Showing Friday Afternoon

Currently, the Global Forecast System (GFS) model, as shown above, indicates a storm signal. However, this model predicts a suppressed and moisture-limited system, lacking the necessary phase to develop into a more robust storm until it moves too far out to sea.

12z EURO Surface Map Showing Friday Afternoon

The European model, depicted above, shows similarities to the GFS in terms of storm placement but suggests a slightly more moisture-rich system. This model forecasts another light to moderate snow event across New Jersey.

12z Canadian Surface Map Showing Friday Afternoon

The most amplified prediction at this time comes from the Canadian model. While I typically exercise caution with this model, its last three runs have consistently suggested a significant coastal storm, potentially bringing widespread snowfall of 3-6 inches, possibly more.

Awaiting Further Developments

As we stand, all three major models concur that an event is brewing later this week, yet the precise alignment and impact remain uncertain. Similar to the last system, clarity may only emerge about 24 hours prior. I will continue to closely monitor the situation and provide updates throughout the week.

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carl
Jan 18

We need a "black hole low" for a major storm. We don't seem to be seeing such an extreme on the barometer. Until that happens, it will be minor events with a couple of inches, and that's only if the temps stay below freezing, which they won't in 6-8 days.

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