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Waves of Winter

Over the next several weeks, you will be hearing about multiple storm threats throughout the first few weeks of March. I am not talking about anything major as of now but a lot more on the table than has been all Winter long. If you read my previous post, you will know I've already been eyeing the middle of March for a potential Winter rebound with some Winter storm chances but a lot will have to go right as time (meteorologically speaking) is not our side.

Tuesday Morning (March 7th)


12z NAM showing Tuesday (3/7) morning

Our first event looks to be a weak cutter coming off the Great Lakes and swinging through the middle of New Jersey, which will favor more of a Northern New Jersey event for wintry precipitation as opposed to all of New Jersey. The one key feature here will be the timing of this system. It looks to pass over New Jersey during the overnight hours of Tuesday morning and be mostly done by daybreak Tuesday. This will cause some delays and slippery conditions on your morning commute as there will be some stickage. Overall snow amounts will be minor, around C-2" for the part. More of a nuisance snow than anything. One thing to note, the GFS came in a bit stronger for Northern New Jersey with increased totals, however the GFS likes to overdue precipitation. We'll monitor that but I would look for the lower end amounts as of now.


12z NAM total snowfall (3/7)

Saturday/Sunday March 11th/12th



12z GFS(top) 12z EURO(bottom)


Our next system looks to be a more interesting scenario shaping up for next weekend sometime. The EURO and GFS both have an idea of a storm and are pretty close to an agreement at this range (over 150hrs). However, the EURO has had this idea a little longer than the GFS (surprise surprise) and with a general consistency of the low placement. Just another wave to keep our eye for now, no need to dive further into a system that is over a week out.

Tuesday/Wednesday March 14th/15th(ish)


12z GFS March 14th-15th

Right behind our weekend storm is a potential mid-week storm. It may not look like much at the moment but I am not looking for a perfect picture, just looking for model guidance to see a potential setup. With all the other indicators aligning during this stretch, the ingredients are on the table for a potential wintry setup. Don't count out Winter yet and buckle up, we maybe in for a wild ride to close-out Winter!

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