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Weekend Split Winter: Snowy North, Rainy South

Our first Winter storm of the season is upon us but it won't be a Winter storm weekend for most (especially those of you in the Southern region). In the beginning of the week, I explained about low placement and how it will make or break areas that see snow fall and how much. Over the past 24hrs, the model guidance has come to a general consensus that our Low Pressure system will hug closer to the coast, pushing the colder air further North and warmer air injecting from the South into the Southern regions


12z GFS Operational Surface

12z Euro Operation Surface

12z Canadian Operational Surface

All three models have generally agreed that Northern New Jersey will be the sweet spot for our first Winter Storm and the Southern half of New Jersey will get a nice soaking rain.

Timing and Details

The system has speed up and we are looking at precipitation to begin falling later Saturday afternoon and the heaviest precipitation falling between 10pm Saturday - 7am Sunday morning. Light snow showers/rain showers may persist throughout Sunday afternoon before clearing out in the evening. Closer to the coastal areas, winds will be sustained between 10-20mph with gusts up to 40mph. Windy conditions will prevail over the entire state, however further interior will not be as strong. Those of you seeing snow, this will be a more of a heavier wet snow, not the nice fluffy stuff due to temperatures not super cold. Accumulations will be more prominent on colder surfaces, roadways will still get covered but may take longer.

For those of you getting all rain, we are looking at another good soaking rain will rainfall totals reaching an 1" in spots. Closer to the coast, you may have to deal with tidal flooding with the strong on shore winds, so be cautious along the coast.

2nd call Snow Map

This will most likely be my final snow map prediction for this event. If anything major changes, I will update but I don't foresee that happening. If you can't see the map below, please click here


I will continue to update of Facebook and X as we lead up to the event.

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